{
  "as_of": "2026-10-23",
  "records": [
    {
      "id": "fusion",
      "name": "Fusion",
      "disrupts": "Firm power from any fuel",
      "stage": "Prototype",
      "status": "Record private funding, $4.48bn in a year, but no machine has yet produced more energy than it takes to run. Commonwealth Fusion Systems says its SPARC machine will start operating in the coming months.",
      "would_matter": "A machine that releases more energy than the whole plant uses, followed by a contract to sell power at a stated price. The first is physics, the second is business; fusion needs both before it counts.",
      "india_angle": "Three of the 56 fusion companies in the industry survey are based in India.",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "date": "2026-08-28",
          "what": "Commonwealth Fusion Systems says SPARC will begin operating in the coming months, aiming to show net fusion energy. It gives no date.",
          "source_url": "https://blog.cfs.energy/why-cfs-is-confident-well-demonstrate-net-fusion-energy-q1/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-13",
          "what": "The fusion industry raises $4.48bn in a year, up 69% and a record, taking the total to $14.24bn across 56 companies.",
          "source_url": "https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/fusion-industry-attracts-record-annual-funding-of-4-48bn-raising-total-to-14-24bn/",
          "tier": 2
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Fusion Industry Association, The Global Fusion Industry in 2026",
          "url": "https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/fusion-industry-attracts-record-annual-funding-of-4-48bn-raising-total-to-14-24bn/",
          "tier": 2
        },
        {
          "name": "Commonwealth Fusion Systems blog",
          "url": "https://blog.cfs.energy/why-cfs-is-confident-well-demonstrate-net-fusion-energy-q1/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Helion, Orion",
          "url": "https://www.helionenergy.com/orion",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "rank": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "smr",
      "name": "Small modular reactors",
      "disrupts": "Coal and gas plants, industrial heat",
      "stage": "First commercial",
      "status": "Two small reactors already sell power: China's HTR-PM since 2023 and Russia's floating plant. Neither has yet shown the falling cost a fleet needs. China's Linglong One is in hot testing and Canada is building the first BWRX-300.",
      "would_matter": "A second and third unit of one design built faster and cheaper than the first. One working reactor proves the design; falling cost across a fleet proves the business.",
      "india_angle": "Budget 2025-26 set aside \u20b920,000 crore for at least five Indian-designed small reactors by 2033, and the SHANTI Act of December 2025 opens nuclear power to private companies. Six firms answered NPCIL's call to build 220 MW Bharat Small Reactors at 16 sites.",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "date": "2026-10-14",
          "what": "Hot functional testing is under way at Linglong One (125 MWe) at Changjiang, China, with fuel loading aimed for within the year.",
          "source_url": "https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/hot-testing-of-chinese-smr-under-way",
          "tier": 2
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12-20",
          "what": "India's SHANTI Act receives assent, letting private companies build and run nuclear plants.",
          "source_url": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2227086&reg=3&lang=2",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-04-04",
          "what": "Canada's regulator licenses construction of the first of four 300 MW BWRX-300 units at Darlington, Ontario, due on the grid by the end of 2030.",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca/eng/reactors/new-reactor-power-plant-projects/new-reactor-power-plant-facilities/darlington-new-nuclear-project/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "date": "2023-12-06",
          "what": "China's HTR-PM, a pair of small high-temperature reactors, enters commercial operation.",
          "source_url": "https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/chinese-htr-pm-demo-begins-commercial-operation",
          "tier": 2
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "World Nuclear News, Linglong One hot testing",
          "url": "https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/hot-testing-of-chinese-smr-under-way",
          "tier": 2
        },
        {
          "name": "Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Darlington New Nuclear Project",
          "url": "https://www.cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca/eng/reactors/new-reactor-power-plant-projects/new-reactor-power-plant-facilities/darlington-new-nuclear-project/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Ontario Power Generation, Darlington SMR",
          "url": "https://www.opg.com/projects-services/projects/nuclear/smr/darlington-smr/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "World Nuclear Association, nuclear power in India",
          "url": "https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/india",
          "tier": 2
        }
      ],
      "rank": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "fast-breeder",
      "name": "Fast breeder reactors",
      "disrupts": "Uranium imports (India)",
      "stage": "Demo",
      "status": "India's 500 MWe prototype fast breeder at Kalpakkam reached first criticality in April 2026, after two decades of construction. It has not yet sent power to the grid.",
      "would_matter": "Steady power to the grid, then a decision to build the next breeders. Breeders are the second stage of India's three-stage plan to run reactors on its large thorium reserves.",
      "india_angle": "This is India's own path: breeders make more fuel than they burn, cutting the need for imported uranium.",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "date": "2026-04-06",
          "what": "The Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam attains first criticality.",
          "source_url": "https://dae.gov.in/prototype-fast-breeder-reactor-at-kalpakkam-tamil-nadu-attains-first-criticality",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Department of Atomic Energy",
          "url": "https://dae.gov.in/prototype-fast-breeder-reactor-at-kalpakkam-tamil-nadu-attains-first-criticality",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "rank": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "enhanced-geothermal",
      "name": "Enhanced geothermal",
      "disrupts": "Gas for firm power",
      "stage": "First commercial",
      "status": "Fervo's Cape Station in Utah declared commercial operation of its first 33 MW block in October 2026. Two more blocks are due by January 2027, and 400 MW more is under construction for 2028.",
      "would_matter": "The next blocks arriving on time and drilling costs continuing to fall. At hundreds of megawatts, firm geothermal starts to matter for data-centre power.",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "date": "2026-10-01",
          "what": "Fervo declares commercial operation of the first 33 MW at Cape Station, ahead of schedule, and reports over 1 GW of binding power purchase agreements.",
          "source_url": "https://ir.fervoenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fervo-energy-declares-commercial-operation-cape-station-ahead",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Fervo Energy release",
          "url": "https://ir.fervoenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/fervo-energy-declares-commercial-operation-cape-station-ahead",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "rank": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "sodium-ion",
      "name": "Sodium-ion batteries",
      "disrupts": "Lithium batteries in cheaper cars and storage",
      "stage": "First commercial",
      "status": "CATL and Changan unveiled the first mass-produced sodium-ion passenger car in February 2026, at 175 Wh/kg, close to lithium iron phosphate cells. Sales were due from mid-2026.",
      "would_matter": "Sales volumes and a price below lithium iron phosphate cells. Sodium needs no lithium, so it would ease the main supply-chain risk for batteries.",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "date": "2026-02-05",
          "what": "CATL and Changan unveil the first mass-produced sodium-ion passenger car, with cells at 175 Wh/kg.",
          "source_url": "https://www.catl.com/en/news/6720.html",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "CATL release",
          "url": "https://www.catl.com/en/news/6720.html",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "rank": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "solid-state",
      "name": "Solid-state batteries",
      "disrupts": "Liquid lithium-ion cells in electric cars",
      "stage": "Prototype",
      "status": "Working cells exist, but no car with them is on sale. Toyota targets a market launch in 2027-28, with a cathode supply deal in place.",
      "would_matter": "Cars on sale with solid-state cells, at a price close to today's batteries. Longer range and faster charging would remove the last purchase objections in many markets.",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "date": "2025-10-08",
          "what": "Toyota and Sumitomo Metal Mining agree on cathode supply, targeting the market launch of cars with all-solid-state batteries in 2027-28.",
          "source_url": "https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/43380876.html",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Toyota release",
          "url": "https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/43380876.html",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "rank": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "natural-hydrogen",
      "name": "Natural (white) hydrogen",
      "disrupts": "Hydrogen made from gas or electricity",
      "stage": "Prototype",
      "status": "Exploration wells are being drilled, but results so far are weak. HyTerra's McCoy-1 well in Kansas found gas with only 0.4% hydrogen in August 2026 and has no buyer.",
      "would_matter": "A well that flows hydrogen at commercial rates and purity, and a first sale. If natural reserves prove large, hydrogen could cost far less than the $2/kg most industry can pay.",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "date": "2026-08-04",
          "what": "HyTerra reports McCoy-1 test results: up to 0.4% hydrogen, a second zone test dropped, no offtake. Its next well depends on funding.",
          "source_url": "https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260804/pdf/072dgnvdslsh8q.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "HyTerra, ASX announcement",
          "url": "https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20260804/pdf/072dgnvdslsh8q.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "US Geological Survey, geologic hydrogen",
          "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/centers/central-energy-resources-science-center/science/geologic-hydrogen",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "rank": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "space-solar",
      "name": "Space-based solar power",
      "disrupts": "Firm power, remote supply",
      "stage": "Prototype",
      "status": "Power has been beamed in orbit at tiny scale. Japan's OHISAMA satellite, meant to beam power from orbit to the ground, has no published launch date.",
      "would_matter": "Useful power received on the ground from orbit, then a credible cost per unit. Launch costs decide whether it ever competes.",
      "evidence": [
        {
          "date": "2023-06-01",
          "what": "Caltech's MAPLE experiment transmits power wirelessly in space and detects it on Earth, a first.",
          "source_url": "https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/in-a-first-caltechs-space-solar-power-demonstrator-wirelessly-transmits-power-in-space",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Caltech release",
          "url": "https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/in-a-first-caltechs-space-solar-power-demonstrator-wirelessly-transmits-power-in-space",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "OHISAMA mission paper, International Astronautical Congress 2026",
          "url": "https://iafastro.directory/iac/paper/id/108811/abstract-pdf/IAC-26,C3,1,2,x108811.brief.pdf",
          "tier": 2
        }
      ],
      "rank": 1
    }
  ]
}