{
  "as_of": "2026-10-25",
  "records": [
    {
      "id": "cheap-abundant-energy",
      "statement": "Energy keeps getting cheaper and more plentiful worldwide, and cheap energy powers the next wave of growth",
      "type": "Expected",
      "status": "Mixed",
      "direction": "Mixed",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "mixed",
        "text": "Clean power keeps getting cheaper; fuel prices swing with geopolitics"
      },
      "analysis": "Every economy that grew rich did so on cheap energy, and the cheapest new electricity is now solar and wind. IRENA puts new solar at $44/MWh worldwide in 2025, 89% below 2010 and under the $50 to $60 of a new gas plant, and China's factories can make panels far faster than the world installs them. Fuels tell the other half of the story. The 2026 Hormuz disruption, Europe's loss of Russian pipeline gas and China's licences on rare-earth exports show that plentiful energy can still be cut off. The average Indian uses just over a third of the world's average energy per person, so the price of the next unit matters most where demand is still catching up.",
      "first_order": "Cheap solar, wind and batteries spread fastest in fast-growing, price-sensitive economies, raising energy use per person",
      "second_order": "Fuel importers gain most from home-grown power; energy-hungry industry moves towards cheap, firm electricity, as it once moved to US shale gas",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "bars",
          "title": "Cost of new electricity, world average for 2025 ($/MWh)",
          "rows": [
            {
              "label": "Onshore wind",
              "value": 33,
              "value_label": "$33",
              "group": "clean",
              "source": {
                "name": "IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025",
                "url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2026/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_2025_Executive_summary_2026.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "label": "Solar",
              "value": 44,
              "value_label": "$44",
              "group": "clean",
              "source": {
                "name": "IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025",
                "url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2026/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_2025_Executive_summary_2026.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "label": "New gas plant",
              "value": 55,
              "value_label": "$50\u201360",
              "group": "fossil",
              "source": {
                "name": "IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025",
                "url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2026/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_2025_Executive_summary_2026.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            }
          ],
          "takeaway": "New solar and wind now undercut new gas in most markets. The risk to cheap energy has moved from technology costs to fuel supply."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Cost of new solar and wind",
          "trend": "Falling",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "Solar $44/MWh and onshore wind $33/MWh in 2025",
          "detail": "Solar's cost fell 89% and onshore wind's 71% between 2010 and 2025. Over 90% of the utility-scale renewable projects commissioned in 2025 cost less than the cheapest new fossil option.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "Cost in 2025, 2010 = 100",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "Solar",
                "value": 11
              },
              {
                "label": "Onshore wind",
                "value": 29
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025",
              "url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2026/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_2025_Executive_summary_2026.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Oil price after inflation",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Cuts against",
          "reading": "Up sharply since February 2026",
          "detail": "About 20 million barrels a day, a fifth of the world's oil use, and about a fifth of the world's LNG trade passed the Strait of Hormuz in 2024. Its disruption in 2026 reversed three years of falling prices.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "price",
            "series": [
              "Brent crude"
            ],
            "field": "real",
            "from": "2000-01-01"
          },
          "sources": [
            "brent",
            "cpi",
            {
              "name": "US EIA, Strait of Hormuz",
              "title": "US Energy Information Administration, Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint, 16 June 2025",
              "url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Europe's gas price against America's",
          "trend": "Mixed",
          "reads": "Cuts against",
          "reading": "Europe pays several times the US price",
          "detail": "Russia supplied about 40% of the EU's pipeline gas imports in 2021 and about 6% in 2025. Europe replaced it with shipped LNG, which costs more to liquefy and carry.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "price",
            "series": [
              "European gas",
              "Henry Hub gas"
            ],
            "field": "nominal",
            "from": "2015-01-01"
          },
          "sources": [
            "pinkSheet",
            "henryHub",
            {
              "name": "Council of the EU, EU gas supply",
              "url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Energy use per person",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "India 27 GJ, world 73 GJ, China 115 GJ in 2025",
          "detail": "Energy use per person rises as incomes do. India's is still just over a third of the world average, so the cost of supply shapes how fast it can catch up.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "gj_per_capita",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World",
              "China"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Spare factory capacity for clean technology",
          "trend": "Flat",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "Solar module capacity over twice the world's installations",
          "detail": "Global module manufacturing capacity passed 1,100 GW at the end of 2024, more than double the year's demand. Spare capacity keeps equipment prices low for buyers everywhere.",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA Renewables 2024",
              "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/17033b62-07a5-4144-8dd0-651cdb6caa24/Renewables2024.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025",
          "url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2026/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_2025_Executive_summary_2026.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "US EIA, Strait of Hormuz",
          "title": "US Energy Information Administration, Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint, 16 June 2025",
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Council of the EU, EU gas supply",
          "url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Energy Institute",
          "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
          "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "gj_per_capita",
        "entities": [
          "India",
          "World",
          "China"
        ],
        "label": "Energy use per person (GJ)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "non-fossil-half-of-power",
      "statement": "Non-fossil sources supply more than half of India's electricity by 2030",
      "type": "Not evident",
      "status": "Untested",
      "direction": "Too early to tell",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "up",
        "text": "Share rising, but slower than the pace needed"
      },
      "analysis": "Non-fossil sources passed half of India's power capacity in 2025, five years ahead of the 2030 goal, yet made only about 27% of its electricity that year. Solar and wind run part of the day, so capacity overstates supply. Reaching half of generation by 2030 needs the share to rise almost five points a year. It rose under one point a year in the decade to 2024, then four in 2025, a strong year for solar and hydro. Storage, transmission and how hard coal plants are run will decide it.",
      "first_order": "Storage, transmission and flexible coal operation become the limits, not new solar capacity",
      "second_order": "Coal plants move to backup duty at lower utilisation; discoms renegotiate fixed-cost contracts; curtailment becomes a real risk for solar developers",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "computed",
          "id": "non-fossil-pace",
          "title": "Non-fossil share of India's electricity: the pace needed",
          "takeaway": "The inflection to watch is a second year of gains near five points. One strong year can be weather; two would be a trend."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Non-fossil share of electricity",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "About 27% in 2025, up from 22% in 2024",
          "detail": "Solar, wind, hydro, nuclear and bioenergy, as a share of electricity generated. The 2025 jump was the largest in the record, helped by a strong monsoon for hydro.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "low_carbon_share_elec",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Non-fossil share of capacity",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "52.6% of installed capacity, February 2026",
          "detail": "India met its 2030 capacity goal in 2025. Capacity runs ahead of generation because solar and wind produce for only part of the day.",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "PIB, India's NDC 2031-35, 25 March 2026",
              "url": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2245209",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Battery storage built",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "Tenders are scaling; installed figures to be added",
          "detail": "Storage lets daytime solar serve the evening. The site will add the CEA's installed storage figures."
        },
        {
          "name": "Curtailment of solar and wind",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "Not yet published as a regular series",
          "detail": "Power that solar and wind could make but the grid cannot take. Rising curtailment would show the grid, not capacity, holding generation back."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "PIB, India's NDC 2031-35, 25 March 2026",
          "url": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2245209",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Energy Institute",
          "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
          "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "low_carbon_share_elec",
        "entities": [
          "India",
          "World"
        ],
        "label": "Non-fossil share of electricity (%)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "storage-default-firm-power",
      "statement": "Batteries become cheap enough that solar plus storage is the default new firm power in India",
      "type": "Expected",
      "status": "Mixed",
      "direction": "Strengthening",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "down",
        "text": "Firm clean power now bids below new coal"
      },
      "analysis": "Solar went from 0.5% of India's electricity in 2015 to 9.4% in 2025, and coal's share dipped from 75% in 2024 to 71%, its first real fall. The price signal has turned. SECI's firm, round-the-clock clean power auction cleared at \u20b95.25/kWh in August 2026, below the \u20b95.38 and \u20b95.84 that Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh agreed in 2025 for power from new coal plants. Those coal contracts were still signed, though, so the shift shows in prices before it shows in procurement.",
      "first_order": "New coal PPAs shrink; storage tenders scale to tens of GWh a year",
      "second_order": "Coal plants become backup with low utilisation, straining discom contracts, Coal India revenue and railway freight income that cross-subsidises passenger fares",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "bars",
          "title": "What new power costs India's buyers (\u20b9/kWh)",
          "rows": [
            {
              "label": "Solar with 4-hour battery, SECI, Oct 2025",
              "value": 2.86,
              "value_label": "\u20b92.86",
              "group": "clean",
              "note": "Solar for the day plus four hours of evening supply, not round-the-clock power.",
              "source": {
                "name": "SECI ISTS-XX auction result",
                "url": "https://www.seci.co.in/uploads/tenders/bidders/SECI_Solar_2000_MW_with_ESS_(ISTS-XX)_result_website_upload2.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "label": "Firm round-the-clock clean power, SECI, Aug 2026",
              "value": 5.25,
              "value_label": "\u20b95.25",
              "group": "clean",
              "source": {
                "name": "SECI FDRE-RTC-V auction result",
                "url": "https://www.seci.co.in/uploads/tenders/bidders/SECI_FDRE-RTC-V-_1000_MW_result_website_upload.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "label": "New coal plant, Uttar Pradesh, May 2025",
              "value": 5.38,
              "value_label": "\u20b95.38",
              "group": "fossil",
              "source": {
                "name": "Adani Power filing, UPPCL award, 10 May 2025",
                "url": "https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/ADANIPOWER_10052025183041_APLLoA_from_UPPCL10052025.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "label": "New coal plant, Madhya Pradesh, Sep 2025",
              "value": 5.84,
              "value_label": "\u20b95.84",
              "group": "fossil",
              "source": {
                "name": "Adani Power release, MPPMCL award, 11 September 2025",
                "url": "https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/adani-power-secures-loa-for-total-1600-mw-capacity-from-mppmcl",
                "tier": 1
              }
            }
          ],
          "takeaway": "Inflection one has passed: firm clean power now bids below new coal. Inflection two is next: states choosing it over new coal in their own power purchases."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Firm clean power tariff",
          "trend": "Falling",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "\u20b95.25/kWh, August 2026",
          "detail": "SECI's 1,000 MW firm and dispatchable renewables auction (FDRE-RTC-V) cleared at \u20b95.25 to \u20b95.26 across seven winners. Solar with four hours of batteries cleared at \u20b92.86 in October 2025.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "\u20b9/kWh",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "Solar + 4h battery",
                "value": 2.86
              },
              {
                "label": "Firm clean power",
                "value": 5.25
              },
              {
                "label": "New coal, UP",
                "value": 5.38
              },
              {
                "label": "New coal, MP",
                "value": 5.84
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "SECI ISTS-XX auction result",
              "url": "https://www.seci.co.in/uploads/tenders/bidders/SECI_Solar_2000_MW_with_ESS_(ISTS-XX)_result_website_upload2.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            },
            {
              "name": "SECI FDRE-RTC-V auction result",
              "url": "https://www.seci.co.in/uploads/tenders/bidders/SECI_FDRE-RTC-V-_1000_MW_result_website_upload.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "New coal contracts",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Cuts against",
          "reading": "3,100 MW of new coal awarded in 2025",
          "detail": "Uttar Pradesh agreed to buy 1,500 MW for 25 years at \u20b95.38/kWh and Madhya Pradesh 1,600 MW at \u20b95.84, both from new ultra-supercritical plants.",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Adani Power filing, UPPCL award, 10 May 2025",
              "url": "https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/ADANIPOWER_10052025183041_APLLoA_from_UPPCL10052025.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            },
            {
              "name": "Adani Power release, MPPMCL award, 11 September 2025",
              "url": "https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/adani-power-secures-loa-for-total-1600-mw-capacity-from-mppmcl",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Coal's share of electricity",
          "trend": "Falling",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "71% in 2025, from 75% in 2024",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "coal_share_elec",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Solar's share of electricity",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "9.4% in 2025, from 0.5% in 2015",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "solar_share_elec",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Coal plant utilisation and railway coal freight",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "To be added from CEA and Railways data",
          "detail": "Falling plant load factors would show coal moving to backup duty, and falling coal freight would hit the railways' cross-subsidy of passenger fares."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Energy Institute",
          "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
          "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "SECI ISTS-XX auction result",
          "url": "https://www.seci.co.in/uploads/tenders/bidders/SECI_Solar_2000_MW_with_ESS_(ISTS-XX)_result_website_upload2.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "SECI FDRE-RTC-V auction result",
          "url": "https://www.seci.co.in/uploads/tenders/bidders/SECI_FDRE-RTC-V-_1000_MW_result_website_upload.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Adani Power filing, UPPCL award, 10 May 2025",
          "url": "https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/ADANIPOWER_10052025183041_APLLoA_from_UPPCL10052025.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Adani Power release, MPPMCL award, 11 September 2025",
          "url": "https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/adani-power-secures-loa-for-total-1600-mw-capacity-from-mppmcl",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "coal_share_elec",
        "entities": [
          "India",
          "World"
        ],
        "label": "Coal share of electricity (%)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-flattens-petrol",
      "statement": "Electric 2- and 3-wheelers and buses flatten India's petrol demand",
      "type": "Expected",
      "status": "Untested",
      "direction": "Too early to tell",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "up",
        "text": "Electric share of two-wheeler sales rising"
      },
      "analysis": "Electric three-wheelers are now the norm, at 61% of new three-wheelers sold in 2025-26, up from 57%. Two-wheelers, which burn most of India's petrol, are earlier on the curve at 6.5% of sales, though the share reached 9.8% in March 2026. India's oil use grew 2.8% a year from 2015 to 2025. The Energy Institute shows it flat in 2025 while the IEA estimates growth of around 3%, so national totals do not yet show EVs flattening petrol.",
      "first_order": "Petrol demand plateaus while diesel and jet keep growing",
      "second_order": "Refineries shift towards petrochemicals; fuel tax revenue for centre and states falls, forcing a new road and vehicle tax model",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "bars",
          "title": "Electric share of new vehicles sold in India, 2025-26 (%)",
          "rows": [
            {
              "label": "Three-wheelers",
              "value": 60.95,
              "value_label": "61%",
              "prev": 57.25,
              "group": "clean",
              "source": {
                "name": "FADA, FY2026 vehicle retail data",
                "title": "Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, vehicle retail data for FY2026 and March 2026, from Vahan registrations",
                "url": "https://fada.in/images/press-release/169d329fc83770FADA%20releases%20FY%202026%20and%20March%202026%20Vehicle%20Retail%20Data.pdf",
                "tier": 2
              }
            },
            {
              "label": "Two-wheelers",
              "value": 6.54,
              "value_label": "6.5%",
              "prev": 6.09,
              "group": "clean",
              "source": {
                "name": "FADA, FY2026 vehicle retail data",
                "title": "Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, vehicle retail data for FY2026 and March 2026, from Vahan registrations",
                "url": "https://fada.in/images/press-release/169d329fc83770FADA%20releases%20FY%202026%20and%20March%202026%20Vehicle%20Retail%20Data.pdf",
                "tier": 2
              }
            },
            {
              "label": "Cars",
              "value": 4.25,
              "value_label": "4.3%",
              "prev": 2.61,
              "group": "clean",
              "source": {
                "name": "FADA, FY2026 vehicle retail data",
                "title": "Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, vehicle retail data for FY2026 and March 2026, from Vahan registrations",
                "url": "https://fada.in/images/press-release/169d329fc83770FADA%20releases%20FY%202026%20and%20March%202026%20Vehicle%20Retail%20Data.pdf",
                "tier": 2
              }
            }
          ],
          "max": 100,
          "prev_label": "2024-25",
          "takeaway": "Three-wheelers have tipped. The test for petrol is two-wheelers: watch for their electric share to hold in double digits through a full year."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Electric share of two-wheeler sales",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "6.5% in 2025-26; 9.8% in March 2026",
          "detail": "Two-wheelers are India's largest petrol users. Registrations from Vahan, compiled by the vehicle dealers' federation.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "% of sales",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "2024-25",
                "value": 6.09
              },
              {
                "label": "2025-26",
                "value": 6.54
              },
              {
                "label": "March 2026",
                "value": 9.79
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "FADA, FY2026 vehicle retail data",
              "title": "Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, vehicle retail data for FY2026 and March 2026, from Vahan registrations",
              "url": "https://fada.in/images/press-release/169d329fc83770FADA%20releases%20FY%202026%20and%20March%202026%20Vehicle%20Retail%20Data.pdf",
              "tier": 2
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Electric share of three-wheeler sales",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "61% in 2025-26, from 57%",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "% of sales",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "2024-25",
                "value": 57.25
              },
              {
                "label": "2025-26",
                "value": 60.95
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "FADA, FY2026 vehicle retail data",
              "title": "Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, vehicle retail data for FY2026 and March 2026, from Vahan registrations",
              "url": "https://fada.in/images/press-release/169d329fc83770FADA%20releases%20FY%202026%20and%20March%202026%20Vehicle%20Retail%20Data.pdf",
              "tier": 2
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Electric share of car sales",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "4.3% in 2025-26, from 2.6%",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "% of sales",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "2024-25",
                "value": 2.61
              },
              {
                "label": "2025-26",
                "value": 4.25
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "FADA, FY2026 vehicle retail data",
              "title": "Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, vehicle retail data for FY2026 and March 2026, from Vahan registrations",
              "url": "https://fada.in/images/press-release/169d329fc83770FADA%20releases%20FY%202026%20and%20March%202026%20Vehicle%20Retail%20Data.pdf",
              "tier": 2
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "India's oil use",
          "trend": "Flat",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "Flat in 2025 on Energy Institute data; about 3% growth on IEA estimates",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "oil_consumption",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World"
            ],
            "index": true
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            },
            {
              "name": "IEA Global Energy Review 2026",
              "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/key-findings",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Petrol sales and fuel tax collections",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "Product-level series to be added",
          "detail": "Petrol, as distinct from diesel and jet fuel, is where electric two-wheelers would show first.",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "PPAC consumption data",
              "title": "Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, product-wise consumption",
              "url": "https://ppac.gov.in/consumption/products-wise",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "FADA, FY2026 vehicle retail data",
          "title": "Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations, vehicle retail data for FY2026 and March 2026, from Vahan registrations",
          "url": "https://fada.in/images/press-release/169d329fc83770FADA%20releases%20FY%202026%20and%20March%202026%20Vehicle%20Retail%20Data.pdf",
          "tier": 2
        },
        {
          "name": "Energy Institute",
          "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
          "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "IEA Global Energy Review 2026",
          "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/key-findings",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "oil_consumption",
        "entities": [
          "India",
          "World"
        ],
        "index": true,
        "label": "Oil consumption"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "chinese-overcapacity",
      "statement": "China's clean-technology factories keep running ahead of world demand, holding solar, battery and electrolyser prices down for a decade",
      "type": "Expected",
      "status": "Mixed",
      "direction": "Strengthening",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "flat",
        "text": "Capacity still far above demand; losses mounting"
      },
      "analysis": "Solar module factories worldwide could make over 1,100 GW a year by the end of 2024, more than twice what was installed, and China holds over 80% of every stage of manufacturing. The glut cut Chinese module prices by more than 60% from 2023 and pushed manufacturers' margins to about \u221210%, with almost $5bn lost since the start of 2024 (IEA). Losses on that scale invite closures, which are the main risk to this hypothesis. If loss-making capacity shuts, prices could firm.",
      "first_order": "Cheaper deployment everywhere, faster adoption in price-sensitive markets",
      "second_order": "Trade defence spreads (duties, local content lists), squeezing margins for Indian manufacturers and making supply chains a policy battleground",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "stats",
          "items": [
            {
              "value": "2\u00d7",
              "label": "Solar module factory capacity against the year's installations, 2024",
              "source": {
                "name": "IEA Renewables 2024",
                "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/17033b62-07a5-4144-8dd0-651cdb6caa24/Renewables2024.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "value": ">60%",
              "label": "Fall in Chinese module prices since 2023",
              "source": {
                "name": "IEA Renewables 2025",
                "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/48eccb83-984c-45d2-bf78-67a61e88d241/Renewables2025.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "value": "\u221210%",
              "label": "Chinese manufacturers' margins, with almost $5bn lost since 2024",
              "source": {
                "name": "IEA Renewables 2025",
                "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/48eccb83-984c-45d2-bf78-67a61e88d241/Renewables2025.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "value": ">90%",
              "label": "China's share of key solar manufacturing stages, held to 2030",
              "source": {
                "name": "IEA Renewables 2025",
                "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/48eccb83-984c-45d2-bf78-67a61e88d241/Renewables2025.pdf",
                "tier": 1
              }
            }
          ],
          "takeaway": "The inflection to watch is closures: when spare capacity starts to shut, the decade of falling prices is ending."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Factory capacity against installations",
          "trend": "Flat",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "Over 1,100 GW of module capacity; 698 GW installed in 2025",
          "detail": "Module capacity is the IEA's end-2024 figure; installations are the IEA PV programme's count for 2025, of which China added about 415 GW.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "GW",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "Module capacity, end-2024",
                "value": 1100
              },
              {
                "label": "Installed worldwide, 2025",
                "value": 698
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA Renewables 2024",
              "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/17033b62-07a5-4144-8dd0-651cdb6caa24/Renewables2024.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            },
            {
              "name": "IEA PVPS Snapshot 2026",
              "title": "IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme, Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2026",
              "url": "https://iea-pvps.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Snapshot-2026-FS.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Module prices",
          "trend": "Falling",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "Down more than 60% in China since 2023",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA Renewables 2025",
              "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/48eccb83-984c-45d2-bf78-67a61e88d241/Renewables2025.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Manufacturers' profits",
          "trend": "Falling",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "Margins about \u221210%; almost $5bn of losses since 2024",
          "detail": "Losses keep prices low today but invite closures and consolidation, which would firm prices later.",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA Renewables 2025",
              "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/48eccb83-984c-45d2-bf78-67a61e88d241/Renewables2025.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "China's share of clean manufacturing investment",
          "trend": "Flat",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "About 75% in 2025",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA World Energy Investment 2026",
              "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/64594543-cf6e-4fd9-8238-d3cae35daf48/WorldEnergyInvestment2026.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "India's approved factory lists",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "About 37 GW of cells (October 2026) and over 200 GW of modules",
          "detail": "India's approved lists shield its market from Chinese modules and, from June 2026, cells. That builds a home industry but means Indian buyers pay more than the world price.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "GW on the approved lists",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "Modules",
                "value": 204
              },
              {
                "label": "Cells",
                "value": 37.4
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "MNRE approved lists (ALMM)",
              "title": "Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Approved List of Models and Manufacturers, List-I (modules) and List-II (cells)",
              "url": "https://mnre.gov.in/en/approved-list-of-models-and-manufacturers-almm/",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "IEA Renewables 2024",
          "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/17033b62-07a5-4144-8dd0-651cdb6caa24/Renewables2024.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "IEA Renewables 2025",
          "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/48eccb83-984c-45d2-bf78-67a61e88d241/Renewables2025.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "IEA PVPS Snapshot 2026",
          "title": "IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme, Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2026",
          "url": "https://iea-pvps.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Snapshot-2026-FS.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "IEA World Energy Investment 2026",
          "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/64594543-cf6e-4fd9-8238-d3cae35daf48/WorldEnergyInvestment2026.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "solar_wind_share_elec",
        "entities": [
          "China",
          "World",
          "India"
        ],
        "label": "Solar and wind share of electricity (%)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "india-import-dependence",
      "statement": "India's energy import dependence rises despite the renewables push",
      "type": "Not evident",
      "status": "Mixed",
      "direction": "Mixed",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "up",
        "text": "Oil dependence at a record; equipment imports shifting from modules to cells"
      },
      "analysis": "First order, fuels: India imported 88% of the oil it used in 2025, up from 79% in 2015, and 53% of its gas, up from 41%. Coal is the exception, with the imported share falling from 27% to 22% as domestic mining expanded. Second order, equipment: the renewables push swaps some fuel imports for machinery. India's approved module factories passed 200 GW, but approved cell capacity is only about 37 GW, so most cells are still imported. Battery cells are almost all imported: only 1.4 GWh of the 50 GWh incentive scheme target had been built by 2025 (IEEFA).",
      "first_order": "Fuel import bills stay exposed to chokepoints such as Hormuz, even as power generation goes domestic",
      "second_order": "Dependence moves from fuels to equipment and minerals, from Gulf suppliers to Chinese factories, and from a recurring bill to a one-off one",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "computed",
          "id": "fuel-imports",
          "title": "First order: share of each fuel India imports (%)"
        },
        {
          "kind": "stats",
          "title": "Second order: equipment",
          "items": [
            {
              "value": "37 GW",
              "label": "Solar cell capacity on India's approved list in October 2026, against over 200 GW of modules",
              "source": {
                "name": "MNRE approved lists (ALMM)",
                "title": "Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Approved List of Models and Manufacturers, List-I (modules) and List-II (cells)",
                "url": "https://mnre.gov.in/en/approved-list-of-models-and-manufacturers-almm/",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "value": "1.4 GWh",
              "label": "Battery cell factories built under the 50 GWh incentive scheme by 2025",
              "source": {
                "name": "IEEFA, India's battery supply chain, May 2026",
                "title": "Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Securing India's battery supply chain is more critical than ever, 29 May 2026",
                "url": "https://ieefa.org/resources/securing-indias-battery-supply-chain-more-critical-ever",
                "tier": 2
              }
            },
            {
              "value": "$3bn+",
              "label": "Lithium-ion batteries imported in 2024-25, eight times 2018-19",
              "source": {
                "name": "IEEFA, India's battery supply chain, May 2026",
                "title": "Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Securing India's battery supply chain is more critical than ever, 29 May 2026",
                "url": "https://ieefa.org/resources/securing-indias-battery-supply-chain-more-critical-ever",
                "tier": 2
              }
            }
          ],
          "takeaway": "Fuel imports are a bill paid every year; equipment imports are paid once and then generate for decades. The shift lowers exposure even if dependence on China rises."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Oil imported",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "88% of oil used, 2025",
          "detail": "Net imports as a share of consumption, in energy terms. India's oil ministry, counting by volume and financial year, reports a similar record.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "oil_import_share",
            "entities": [
              "India"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Gas imported",
          "trend": "Mixed",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "53% in 2025, from 54% in 2024",
          "detail": "Gas use fell in 2025 as LNG prices rose. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh bring almost two-thirds of their LNG through the Strait of Hormuz.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "gas_import_share",
            "entities": [
              "India"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            },
            {
              "name": "IEA, Strait of Hormuz",
              "url": "https://www.iea.org/about/oil-security-and-emergency-response/strait-of-hormuz",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Coal imported",
          "trend": "Falling",
          "reads": "Cuts against",
          "reading": "22% in 2025, from 27% in 2015",
          "detail": "The coal ministry puts 2024-25 imports at 244 Mt against demand of 1,267 Mt, about 19%.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "coal_import_share",
            "entities": [
              "India"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            },
            {
              "name": "Ministry of Coal Annual Report 2025-26, chapter 9",
              "url": "https://www.coal.nic.in/sites/default/files/2026-02/chap9AnnualReport2026en.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Solar cells made at home",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "About 37 GW of approved cell capacity, against over 200 GW of modules",
          "detail": "Modules are assembled in India from imported cells, and cells from imported wafers. The cell list became binding for most utility projects from June 2026.",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "GW on the approved lists",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "Modules",
                "value": 204
              },
              {
                "label": "Cells",
                "value": 37.4
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "MNRE approved lists (ALMM)",
              "title": "Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Approved List of Models and Manufacturers, List-I (modules) and List-II (cells)",
              "url": "https://mnre.gov.in/en/approved-list-of-models-and-manufacturers-almm/",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Battery cells",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "Over $3bn imported in 2024-25; 1.4 GWh built at home",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEEFA, India's battery supply chain, May 2026",
              "title": "Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Securing India's battery supply chain is more critical than ever, 29 May 2026",
              "url": "https://ieefa.org/resources/securing-indias-battery-supply-chain-more-critical-ever",
              "tier": 2
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Grid equipment (transformers, cables, switchgear)",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "Import data to be added"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Energy Institute",
          "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
          "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "MNRE approved lists (ALMM)",
          "title": "Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Approved List of Models and Manufacturers, List-I (modules) and List-II (cells)",
          "url": "https://mnre.gov.in/en/approved-list-of-models-and-manufacturers-almm/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "IEEFA, India's battery supply chain, May 2026",
          "title": "Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Securing India's battery supply chain is more critical than ever, 29 May 2026",
          "url": "https://ieefa.org/resources/securing-indias-battery-supply-chain-more-critical-ever",
          "tier": 2
        },
        {
          "name": "Ministry of Coal Annual Report 2025-26, chapter 9",
          "url": "https://www.coal.nic.in/sites/default/files/2026-02/chap9AnnualReport2026en.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "oil_import_share",
        "entities": [
          "India"
        ],
        "label": "Share of India's oil that is imported (%)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "india-fossil-use-rises",
      "statement": "India's fossil fuel use keeps rising in absolute terms through the 2030s, led by coal, even as its share falls",
      "type": "Not evident",
      "status": "Supported",
      "direction": "Strengthening",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "up",
        "text": "Still rising, though slower in 2025"
      },
      "analysis": "Coal, oil and gas still supply about 93% of India's primary energy, and coal alone 59%, a share that has hardly moved in a decade. India burned 43% more coal in 2025 than in 2015 and 39% more fossil fuel in all, while the world's coal use rose 6%. Growth slowed in 2025, with coal up under 1%, oil flat and gas down, as hydro and solar covered a mild year. The coal ministry still projects demand of about 1.44 billion tonnes for 2025-26, and new coal plants were contracted in 2025, so absolute growth looks set to continue.",
      "first_order": "Coal and oil output targets stay high; new coal capacity is still ordered",
      "second_order": "Stranded-asset risk arrives later but larger; carbon border taxes (CBAM) hit steel and aluminium exports; coal gasification grows as a hedge",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "computed",
          "id": "fossil-mix",
          "title": "India's fossil fuel use, ten years apart (TWh)",
          "takeaway": "Coal does most of the lifting. The inflection is the first year India's coal use falls while its economy grows."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Coal use",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "Up 43% from 2015 to 2025; under 1% in 2025",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "coal_consumption",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World"
            ],
            "index": true
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Oil use",
          "trend": "Flat",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "Flat in 2025 after a decade of growth",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "oil_consumption",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World"
            ],
            "index": true
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Gas use",
          "trend": "Falling",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "Down in 2025 as LNG prices rose",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "gas_consumption",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World"
            ],
            "index": true
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Fossil share of primary energy",
          "trend": "Flat",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "About 93% in 2025",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "fossil_share_energy",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "New coal plants contracted",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "3,100 MW awarded in 2025",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Adani Power filing, UPPCL award, 10 May 2025",
              "url": "https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/ADANIPOWER_10052025183041_APLLoA_from_UPPCL10052025.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            },
            {
              "name": "Adani Power release, MPPMCL award, 11 September 2025",
              "url": "https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/adani-power-secures-loa-for-total-1600-mw-capacity-from-mppmcl",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Exports exposed to carbon border taxes",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "Steel and aluminium exports to the EU, to be added"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Energy Institute",
          "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
          "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Ministry of Coal Annual Report 2025-26, chapter 9",
          "url": "https://www.coal.nic.in/sites/default/files/2026-02/chap9AnnualReport2026en.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Adani Power filing, UPPCL award, 10 May 2025",
          "url": "https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/corporate/ADANIPOWER_10052025183041_APLLoA_from_UPPCL10052025.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Adani Power release, MPPMCL award, 11 September 2025",
          "url": "https://www.adani.com/newsroom/media-releases/adani-power-secures-loa-for-total-1600-mw-capacity-from-mppmcl",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "fossil_consumption",
        "entities": [
          "India",
          "World"
        ],
        "index": true,
        "label": "Fossil fuel use (coal, oil and gas)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "cooling-sets-peak",
      "statement": "Cooling, not industry, sets India's evening peak",
      "type": "Not evident",
      "status": "Untested",
      "direction": "Too early to tell",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "up",
        "text": "Peak demand rising; the peak still falls in the afternoon"
      },
      "analysis": "India's peak demand set a record of over 256 GW on an April 2026 afternoon, above the 250 GW of May 2024. For now the peak falls in solar hours, when solar helps meet it. The hypothesis is that cooling pushes the peak past sunset, when solar is gone. Use per person is about 1,420 kWh, under two fifths of the world average, so air-conditioner ownership has a long way to rise. Hourly Grid-India data, next on the pipeline, will test the timing.",
      "first_order": "Peak demand moves to after sunset as air-conditioner ownership climbs",
      "second_order": "Storage and demand response become more valuable than new solar; building codes and appliance efficiency become major energy policy levers",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "stats",
          "items": [
            {
              "value": "256 GW",
              "label": "Record peak demand, an afternoon in April 2026",
              "source": {
                "name": "Ministry of Power, via All India Radio, 28 April 2026",
                "url": "https://newsonair.gov.in/india-meets-record-peak-power-demand-of-over-256-gigawatts/",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "value": "250 GW",
              "label": "Previous record, May 2024",
              "source": {
                "name": "Ministry of Power, via All India Radio, 28 April 2026",
                "url": "https://newsonair.gov.in/india-meets-record-peak-power-demand-of-over-256-gigawatts/",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "value": "1,420 kWh",
              "label": "Electricity used per person in India, 2025, under two fifths of the world average",
              "source": {
                "name": "Energy Institute",
                "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
                "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
                "tier": 1
              }
            }
          ],
          "takeaway": "The inflection is the day the yearly peak lands after sunset. Then evening supply, not daytime solar, sets what India must build."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Peak demand",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "Over 256 GW, April 2026",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "GW",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "May 2024",
                "value": 250
              },
              {
                "label": "April 2026",
                "value": 256
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Ministry of Power, via All India Radio, 28 April 2026",
              "url": "https://newsonair.gov.in/india-meets-record-peak-power-demand-of-over-256-gigawatts/",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Time of the peak",
          "trend": "Flat",
          "reads": "Cuts against",
          "reading": "Still in the afternoon, in solar hours",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Ministry of Power, via All India Radio, 28 April 2026",
              "url": "https://newsonair.gov.in/india-meets-record-peak-power-demand-of-over-256-gigawatts/",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Electricity use per person",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "About 1,420 kWh in 2025",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "per_capita_electricity",
            "entities": [
              "India",
              "World",
              "China"
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Air-conditioner sales",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "No official yearly series yet"
        },
        {
          "name": "Evening prices on the power exchange",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "To be added from exchange data"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "Ministry of Power, via All India Radio, 28 April 2026",
          "url": "https://newsonair.gov.in/india-meets-record-peak-power-demand-of-over-256-gigawatts/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Energy Institute",
          "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
          "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "per_capita_electricity",
        "entities": [
          "India",
          "World",
          "China"
        ],
        "label": "Electricity use per person (kWh)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "data-centre-demand",
      "statement": "Data centres and AI drive a new wave of electricity demand",
      "type": "Expected",
      "status": "Untested",
      "direction": "Strengthening",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "up",
        "text": "Rising fast from a small base"
      },
      "analysis": "Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, 1.5% of the world's electricity, and the IEA expects that to more than double to about 945 TWh by 2030, with the US taking the largest share of the growth. Orders for gas-fired power reached 130 GW in 2025, the most in 25 years, with US data centres a major factor. India's data-centre capacity quadrupled from about 375 MW in 2020 to around 1,500 MW in 2025. Running flat out that is about 13 TWh a year, under 1% of India's electricity, so in India this is a question for local grids more than for the national total.",
      "first_order": "Utilities order gas turbines, extend coal and restart or uprate nuclear",
      "second_order": "Corporate buyers fund firm clean power (nuclear, geothermal, storage), pulling those technologies down the cost curve faster than policy alone would",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "stats",
          "items": [
            {
              "value": "415 TWh",
              "label": "Electricity used by data centres worldwide, 2024 (1.5% of the total)",
              "source": {
                "name": "IEA Energy and AI",
                "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/executive-summary",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "value": "945 TWh",
              "label": "Expected by 2030",
              "source": {
                "name": "IEA Energy and AI",
                "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/executive-summary",
                "tier": 1
              }
            },
            {
              "value": "1.5 GW",
              "label": "India's data-centre capacity in 2025, from 375 MW in 2020",
              "source": {
                "name": "MeitY, data centre capacity",
                "title": "Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, Data centre capacity in the country has increased from about 375 MW in 2020 to around 1,500 MW by 2025",
                "url": "https://www.digitalindia.gov.in/press_release/data-centre-capacity-in-the-country-hasincreased-from-about-375-mw-in-2020-toaround-1500-mw-by-2025/",
                "tier": 1
              }
            }
          ],
          "takeaway": "For the world the question is how fast; for India it is where. A few states will feel it long before the national total does."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Data-centre electricity, world",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "415 TWh in 2024; about 945 TWh expected in 2030",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "TWh",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "2024",
                "value": 415
              },
              {
                "label": "2030, expected",
                "value": 945
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA Energy and AI",
              "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/executive-summary",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "India's data-centre capacity",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "Around 1,500 MW in 2025",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "bars",
            "unit": "MW",
            "rows": [
              {
                "label": "2020",
                "value": 375
              },
              {
                "label": "2025",
                "value": 1500
              }
            ]
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "MeitY, data centre capacity",
              "title": "Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, Data centre capacity in the country has increased from about 375 MW in 2020 to around 1,500 MW by 2025",
              "url": "https://www.digitalindia.gov.in/press_release/data-centre-capacity-in-the-country-hasincreased-from-about-375-mw-in-2020-toaround-1500-mw-by-2025/",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Gas turbine orders",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "130 GW ordered in 2025, the most in 25 years",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA World Energy Investment 2026",
              "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/64594543-cf6e-4fd9-8238-d3cae35daf48/WorldEnergyInvestment2026.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "US electricity demand",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "Rising after a flat decade",
          "chart": {
            "kind": "owid",
            "column": "electricity_demand",
            "entities": [
              "United States",
              "World"
            ],
            "index": true
          },
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "Energy Institute",
              "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
              "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Corporate clean power deals and small reactor contracts",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "To be logged on the Business page"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "IEA Energy and AI",
          "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/executive-summary",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "IEA World Energy Investment 2026",
          "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/64594543-cf6e-4fd9-8238-d3cae35daf48/WorldEnergyInvestment2026.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "MeitY, data centre capacity",
          "title": "Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, Data centre capacity in the country has increased from about 375 MW in 2020 to around 1,500 MW by 2025",
          "url": "https://www.digitalindia.gov.in/press_release/data-centre-capacity-in-the-country-hasincreased-from-about-375-mw-in-2020-toaround-1500-mw-by-2025/",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "Energy Institute",
          "title": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
          "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ],
      "chart": {
        "column": "electricity_demand",
        "entities": [
          "United States",
          "World"
        ],
        "index": true,
        "label": "Electricity demand"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "biofuels-double",
      "statement": "India's biofuel use doubles from 293 PJ in 2025 by 2030",
      "type": "Not evident",
      "status": "Untested",
      "direction": "Too early to tell",
      "trend": {
        "arrow": "up",
        "text": "Rising fast, but current policies reach about 1.5 times, not double"
      },
      "analysis": "India's use of liquid and gaseous biofuels nearly tripled from 101 PJ in 2018 to 293 PJ in 2025, as ethanol blending in petrol reached 20%. The IEA expects 429 PJ by 2030 under current policies and market conditions, its main case, about 1.5 times the 2025 level. Doubling needs its accelerated case of 609 PJ, in which every announced target is met, including 5% biodiesel in diesel by 2030 and rising mandates for compressed biogas and aviation fuel. Biodiesel would supply most of that extra growth.",
      "first_order": "Ethanol holds at about a fifth of petrol while biodiesel, compressed biogas and aviation fuel mandates carry the rest",
      "second_order": "Feedstock demand pulls in cane, maize, rice and crop residues; food prices, water and maize imports become energy issues",
      "key_data": [
        {
          "kind": "scenarios",
          "title": "India's biofuel use: actual and the IEA's 2030 cases (PJ)",
          "actual": [
            {
              "year": 2018,
              "value": 101
            },
            {
              "year": 2024,
              "value": 210
            },
            {
              "year": 2025,
              "value": 293
            }
          ],
          "cases": [
            {
              "name": "Main case: current policies",
              "year": 2030,
              "value": 429
            },
            {
              "name": "Accelerated case: all announced targets met",
              "year": 2030,
              "value": 609
            }
          ],
          "target": {
            "value": 586,
            "label": "Double the 2025 level"
          },
          "source": {
            "name": "IEA India Bioenergy Market Report, 2026",
            "title": "IEA, India Bioenergy Market Report: outlook for liquid and gaseous biofuels to 2030 (revised February 2026)",
            "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/india-bioenergy-market-report",
            "tier": 1
          },
          "takeaway": "Current policies get India halfway to doubling. Biodiesel blending is the swing factor."
        }
      ],
      "indicators": [
        {
          "name": "Biofuel use",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "293 PJ in 2025, from 101 PJ in 2018",
          "detail": "Liquid and gaseous biofuels together. The IEA's main case reaches 429 PJ in 2030, short of the 586 PJ that doubling needs.",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA India Bioenergy Market Report, 2026",
              "title": "IEA, India Bioenergy Market Report: outlook for liquid and gaseous biofuels to 2030 (revised February 2026)",
              "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/india-bioenergy-market-report",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Ethanol blending in petrol",
          "trend": "Flat",
          "reads": "Mixed",
          "reading": "20% reached in 2025",
          "detail": "The target was met ahead of the original 2030 date. The IEA's accelerated case assumes only a small rise beyond it, to 21%.",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "PIB, Ethanol Blended Petrol Programme FAQ, 10 July 2026",
              "url": "https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2026/jul/doc2026710917901.pdf",
              "tier": 1
            },
            {
              "name": "IEA India Bioenergy Market Report, 2026",
              "title": "IEA, India Bioenergy Market Report: outlook for liquid and gaseous biofuels to 2030 (revised February 2026)",
              "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/india-bioenergy-market-report",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Biodiesel blending in diesel",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "Target 5% by 2030",
          "detail": "The largest single swing between the IEA's two cases.",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA India Bioenergy Market Report, 2026",
              "title": "IEA, India Bioenergy Market Report: outlook for liquid and gaseous biofuels to 2030 (revised February 2026)",
              "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/india-bioenergy-market-report",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Compressed biogas mandate",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "1% of gas in 2025-26, rising to 5% from 2028-29",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA India Bioenergy Market Report, 2026",
              "title": "IEA, India Bioenergy Market Report: outlook for liquid and gaseous biofuels to 2030 (revised February 2026)",
              "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/india-bioenergy-market-report",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Sustainable aviation fuel mandate",
          "trend": "Rising",
          "reads": "Supports",
          "reading": "1% of international flights' fuel in 2027, 2% in 2028",
          "sources": [
            {
              "name": "IEA India Bioenergy Market Report, 2026",
              "title": "IEA, India Bioenergy Market Report: outlook for liquid and gaseous biofuels to 2030 (revised February 2026)",
              "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/india-bioenergy-market-report",
              "tier": 1
            }
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "Maize imports and food prices",
          "trend": "Not tracked yet",
          "reads": "Awaiting data",
          "reading": "To be added"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "name": "IEA India Bioenergy Market Report, 2026",
          "title": "IEA, India Bioenergy Market Report: outlook for liquid and gaseous biofuels to 2030 (revised February 2026)",
          "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/india-bioenergy-market-report",
          "tier": 1
        },
        {
          "name": "PIB, Ethanol Blended Petrol Programme FAQ, 10 July 2026",
          "url": "https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2026/jul/doc2026710917901.pdf",
          "tier": 1
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}