Lever 2 of 3 · Technology · verified

Which technologies already win on cost, and which could upend the balance?

Each challenger is set against the incumbent it would replace, in the same unit, from the latest official or recognised figure. Below that, the unproven technologies that could disrupt the energy mix, where each stands today, and the milestones due in the next two years.

The cost race: challenger against incumbent

Each card compares like with like: the price of a unit of electricity, a kilometre driven, or a kilogram of hydrogen. Blue is the challenger, orange the incumbent. The verdict is worked out from the two figures: cheaper, near parity (within 10%) or costlier.

How fast costs are moving

What the race says

Cheap daytime solar is no longer the question. The contest has moved to firm power, available at any hour: India's round-the-clock renewables auction cleared below the price of a new coal plant, while in China and the United States firm solar still costs more than new coal or gas.

In transport, two- and three-wheelers already cost less per kilometre on electricity. Cars still carry a purchase premium in India, while in China most battery cars are now cheaper than the average petrol car. Green hydrogen costs more than twice what most industry can pay without support.

Editorial draft, awaiting review, drawn from the sourced comparisons on the left.

Unproven but potentially disruptive

Where each technology stands on a five-step ladder, from lab to scaling, judged on what has been shown, not what has been promised. Click a row for its evidence, milestones and India angle.

What to watch in the next 12 to 24 months

Milestones that would move a technology up the ladder, or show it slipping. Each says who set the date; where nobody has published one, it says so rather than guessing. A milestone turns green when met and red when missed. Click a card for its source.

How the ladder is judged

  • Lab: shown in a laboratory or on paper.
  • Prototype: a working device at small scale, not yet producing useful energy.
  • Demo: a full-size unit producing energy, not yet sold on commercial terms.
  • First commercial: at least one unit selling energy or products.
  • Scaling: several commercial units, with costs falling from one to the next.

A company's target date never moves a technology up the ladder; only a regulator record, an official release or the company reporting a result does.

Data releases that will update this page

BloombergNEF battery price survey (each December) · SECI round-the-clock and storage auctions (rolling) · IEA Global EV Outlook (each spring) · IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs (each summer) · IEA Global Hydrogen Review (each autumn).

Where every figure comes from

Tier 1, official and primary: IRENA and the IEA, SECI auction results, stock exchange filings, regulators and government departments, and companies' own releases about their own results.

Tier 2, labelled: BloombergNEF, the Fusion Industry Association, CEEW and World Nuclear News, used where no primary source publishes the figure.

A news report is used only to find the underlying release. The build rejects any other source.